2020年巴郡股東會精華重溫 股神巴菲特提6大投資重點 |三火木

2020年巴郡股東會精華重溫 股神巴菲特提6大投資重點 |三火木

你可能知道股神巴菲特已經清倉航空股,但了解背後原因嗎?為什麼巴郡股票曾經回購股票,但後來股價跌到更低,卻沒有再回購股票?巴菲特對公共事業(資本開支)、指數型基金、石油股有什麼看法?我將歷時2小時22分鐘、34條問答的巴郡股東大會問答環節總結為六大重點。

撰文:九十後股票投資 三火木|圖片:新傳媒資料室

1.航空股在疫情過後可能仍然難以快速復甦

巴菲特在股東會上承認自己在買入航空股上犯錯,但犯錯並非因為計算估值上出錯,或者其後發現航空股企業質素不夠優質,而是因為低機率事情發生嚴重影響航空股業務(Warren Buffett: But it’s always a problem if there are things on the lower levels of probabilities that happen sometimes, and it happened to the airlines),天災人禍發生機率低,但並代表不會發生,而極低機率的全球傳染病「新冠肺炎」疲情已經令經濟停擺,每日航班大減。

巴菲特認為疫情最終可能會改變群眾的生活習慣,他已經看不清楚航空股未來的發展。

(Warren Buffett: The world has changed for the airlines, and I don’t know how it’s changed, and I hope it corrects itself in a reasonably prompt way. I don’t know whether the Americans will have now changed their habits or will change their habits because of an extended period if it happens that we’re semi shut down in the economy.)熟悉巴菲特的人都會知道「能力圈理論」:投資要選自己能力範圍內可以理解的目標,當事情超出你可以理解的「能力範圍」時就要撤退。

巴菲特在另一條問答亦再次提起航空股,從經營角度來看,如果繼續持有航空股將會持續有經營損失,亦難以估計損失持續到幾時。(有新聞指出達美航空每天「燒錢」近1億美元,公司期望以7月前可減少一半開支)

(Warren Buffett:If we owned all of an airline now, it would be a tough decision to decide whether to sustain billions of dollars in operating losses when you don’t know how long it’s going to happen or occur.) 

巴菲特亦提到他非常了解當飛機過剩時,載客量下跌與機位過多對機票價格影響有多大。這句說話可能代表航空股盈利在疫情過後仍然難以快速復原。

(Warren Buffett:And secondly, you know that it’s very likely that there’ll be too many planes around. And we know what happens in airline pricing, when load factors go down and there’s an oversupply of airline seats. )

第三個原因在於航空股有機會向政府集資後再向股東集資,攤薄現有股東利潤。而事實上美國聯合航空(UAL)已經在2020年4月21日宣布計劃配股集資超過10億美元。巴菲特認為航空公司這個舉動可以幫助他們自己捱過疫情難關,但對投資者是否有好處就有待時間證明。(我認為暗示對投資者不利)

(Warren Buffett: And the government of course is as well, they’ve had the first wave of financing for the airlines. But to the airlines credit, they have very aggressively raised money. I mean it’s amazing to me what a good job they’ve done of that. And I think in the case of three of them, no, two of them, but there may be more coming, that they’ve raised equity money too. They are saying that the debt holders and investors, you’ve got to put more money into this business if we’re going to be able to continue. And the government’s done it. And private sources have done it and it’s exactly the right thing for the managements to be doing. But whether it makes sense, we’ll find out for the investors.)

2.估值並非一成不變

問答中有人問到巴菲特: 為什麼你在1月時會回購巴郡股票,但2月與3月股價更低時沒有回購?

巴菲特提到回購是基於當時的股價與企業內在價值比較,而他在投資航空股上的損失令巴郡實際價值下跌,所以即使後期股價更低但亦不值得回購股票。(Warren Buffett: There could be a price relative to value at the time, not real as what it was worth a year ago. I mean, the value of certain things have decreased. Our airline position was a mistake. Berkshire is worth less today because I took that position than if I hadn’t. There other decisions like that, and it is not more compelling to buy the shares now than it was when we were buying them.)

另外,現時巴郡股價雖然低,但比起其他投資選擇(儲備現金)不算更值博。(Warren Buffett: But the price has not gotten to a level or not been at a level where it really feels way better to us than other things, including the option value of money to stop up in a big, big way.)

Greg Abel補充:回購股票前題是要對巴郡投資者有利,並不代表任何時候都會回購或者他們的想法一定一成不變。

3.美聯儲搶走巴郡投資機會

如果大家重溫金融海嘯時期,大企業如高盛銀行同美國銀行都面臨危機,他們在市場中難以籌集資金,所以唯有向巴郡求助,借錢代價是發行每年派8%至10%息的優先股給巴郡,而這些優先股亦附帶低價轉換為正股的條件。時至今日,這些優先股已經為巴郡帶來倍升回報。在今次股東會上,巴菲特被問到為什麼巴郡在今次大跌市捕捉不到機會,「照板煮碗」向其他企業提供融資?巴菲特坦言因為今次看不到有吸引的機會,加上美聯儲(Fed)今次動作快,大企業很快已在市場上籌集到資金,不需要找巴郡融資「捱貴息」。

(Warren Buffett: Well, we haven’t seen anything attractive. And frankly, wasn’t predicated on this, but the Federal Reserve did the right thing and they did it very promptly, which they should have and I salute them for it. But that means that a lot of companies that needed money and probably should have done their financing a little earlier, but they’re perfectly decent companies, got the chance to finance in huge ways in the last five weeks or thereabouts.)

巴菲特亦提到在金融海嘯時期為其他大企業提供融資並非想向世界證明什麼,而是因為這是當時明智之選(明智的投資)。(Warren Buffett: But in 2008 and 2009, the truth is we weren’t buying those things to make a statement to the world. They may have made a statement to the world to some extent, and I’m glad that they did if they did, but we made them because they seemed intelligent things to do and markets were such that we didn’t really have much competition.)

雖然巴郡今次的投資機會被搶走,但無人知道市場會否很快再次面臨資金緊張。(Warren Buffett: It was designed to take advantage of- what we thought were very attractive terms, but they were terms that nobody else was willing to offer at that time because the market was in a state of panic. And the market in equities was in a state of panic for a short period of time when the virus broke out or spread in the United States. And it became apparent and the debt market was frozen, or in the process of freezing, and that changed dramatically when the Fed acted. But who knows what happens next week or next month or next year? The Fed doesn’t know. I don’t know. And nobody knows.)

巴菲特再提到市場可以輕易融資對大企業與國家是好事,但對於巴郡來說並非好事。因為巴郡手上的大量現金正等待企業融資有困難,放貸條件好時借出。(Warren Buffett: This is a very good time to borrow money, which means it may not be such a great time to lend money, but it’s good for the country that it’s a good time to borrow money. Not good for Berkshire particularly.)

2020年-巴郡股東大會-巴菲特-6大重點
被問到為什麼巴郡在今次大跌市捕捉不到機會,巴菲特坦言美聯儲(Fed)今次動作快,大企業很快已在市場上籌集到資金,不需要找巴郡融資「捱貴息」。

4.好生意只需要很少資本投入 但巴郡適合資本投入大的生意

最好的價值投資就是選擇一些資本投入少的生意,而巴菲特在今次問答中再次提到資本投入少既生意比起資本投入多既生意更好。

(Warren Buffett: And in terms of capital intensive businesses, they’re just not as good. If you can find an equally good business in terms of operations that doesn’t require capital, never required capital. Didn’t grow but it just doesn’t, it didn’t take money to expand it and it just delivered enormous sums to us.)( you really want a business and everybody wants a business that doesn’t take any capital to speak of and keeps growing. It doesn’t take more capital as it grows.)

巴菲特提到如果你檢視超過300萬億市值市場,你會發現頭四五位企業這麽值錢是因為他們在賺到大量利潤的同時不需要大量資本投入。

(Warren Buffett: If you look at where the top market value is in a $30 trillion market, if you take the top four or five companies that account for maybe four trillion or so of that 30 trillion. Basically they don’t take much capital. And that’s why they’re worth a lot of money because they make a lot of money and they don’t require the money to any great extent in the business.)

巴菲特說過去幾十年他領悟到:若果你投資在一盤不需要資本投入而業務不斷增長既生意,你最終總會得到回報。這句話令我想起巴菲特投資時思糖果的經典例子。

(That’s what we’ve learned from 50 or 60 years of operating businesses that if you can find a great business that doesn’t require capital, when it grows, you’ve really got something.)

保險業的好處亦在於它不需要大量資本投入,只需要留存資本以備保單賠償。

(Warren Buffett:Our insurance business doesn’t really take capital. It requires having capital available, but we’re able to invest that money largely in things we’d like to own anyway. So we’re particularly well suited for the insurance business and it’s really been the most important factor in our growth over the years.)

而巴菲特認為巴郡擁有大量資本,資金成本低,與其他企業需要籌集資金情況唔同,所以巴郡比較適合資本投入大的生意。

(Warren Buffett:We’ve got capital. I mean we’re ideally positioned for capital intensive businesses that other people will have trouble raising capital for, but they’ve still got to promise decent returns.)

基於巴郡有大量資本來自保險業,所以巴郡需要更好穩健的生意作投資。

(Warren Buffett: We’d be happy we own the railroad, very happy. Well, we’d been investing a lot of capital in it, but that business is, in my view, is a very, very solid business for many, many, many, many decades to come. I said originally we bought it with a hundred year time horizon and I’ve extended that so it will earn more dollars if there’s a lot of inflation.)

Greg Abel亦提到資本投入大的生意(公用事業)在面對通漲情況會仍然保持到良好回報,因為這類生意有議價能力或利潤協議保障(類似香港政府與中電港燈利潤管制協議),可以彌補成本上升,什至賺更多錢。

(Greg Abel: I mean we are in a unique, when we’re looking at energy or rail, we do have a certain amount of pricing power and it’s through our regulatory formulas or how our arrangements are with our customers. So if we then were to move into an inflationary period, it’s not perfect protection, but those businesses generally can recover a significant portion of their costs, even in an inflationary environment and still are in a reasonable return. They’re not going to be great returns as you highlighted Warren, but they’re still going to earn a reasonable return on their capital even in an inflationary period.)

巴菲特起另一條問答中更清楚總結:資本密集生意(公用事業)不會令你身家大漲,大富大貴,但如果你已經一位是富豪,他可以保障你一直富有。

(Warren Buffett: And they take a long time, they earn decent returns. I’ve always said about the energy business, it’s not a way to get real rich, but it’s a way to stay real rich. And we will deploy a lot of money at decent returns, not super returns. You shouldn’t earn super returns on that sort of thing. I mean, you are getting rights to do certain things that governmental authorities are authorizing and that they should protect consumers, but they also should protect people that put up the capital.)

5.當巴郡手握大量現金 為何巴菲特叫投資者入市?投資者要有什麼心理準備?

巴菲特提到巴郡手上千億美元現金其實並不算多,因為現金存儲主要用作應對可能發生的保險賠償(隨時發生地震或風災)

(Warren Buffett: the position isn’t that huge. When I look at worst case possibilities, I would say that there are things that I think are quite improbable. And I hope they don’t happen, but that doesn’t mean they won’t happen. I mean, for example, in our insurance business, we could have the world’s, or the country’s, number one hurricane that it’s ever had, but that doesn’t preclude the fact that could have the biggest earthquake a month later.)

儲備現金亦為任何問題所引起的後遺症做好準備;例如大家都預料不到08年09年會出現大規模的金融海嘯。

(Warren Buffett: So we don’t prepare ourselves for a single problem. We prepare ourselves for problems that sometimes create their own momentum. I mean 2008 and 9, you didn’t see all the problems the first day, when what really kicked it off was when the Freddie and Fannie, the GSEs went into conservatorship in early September. And then when money market funds broke the buck… There are things to trip other things, and we take a very much a worst case scenario into mind that probably is a considerably worse case than most people do. )

巴菲特提到他並非建議大家今天或明天或下星期下個月買股票,而是應該根據自己情況而買。買入股票之前要做好長線持有的心態,財政上沒有變現需要(投資需要用閒錢)。持有股票的心態與持有一個農場一樣,市場報價並不重要(重要的是農場可以為你產出什麼)。

(Warren Buffett:I’m not recommending that people buy stocks today or tomorrow or next week or next month. I think it all depends on your circumstances, but you shouldn’t buy stocks unless you expect, in my view, you expect to hold them for a very extended period and you are prepared financially and psychologically to hold them, the same way you would hold a farm and never look at a quote and never pay… You don’t need to pay attention to them. )

巴菲特提醒投資者要有股票下跌50%既心理準備,過去歷史上巴郡曾經有3次股價大跌,但當時巴郡業務其實仍然正常。如果你一直利用借貸去買股票,股價大跌50%可能已經令你一無所有。投資股票要有正確心態,若果你因為股價下跌而恐慌賣出,或者因為其他人既質疑令你賣出,其實你不適合持有股票,因為你總會因情緒影響而起錯誤時機買入或賣出股票。

(Warren Buffett: I pointed out that there had been three times in Berkshire’s history when the price of Berkshire stock went down 50%. Three different times. Now if you hold it on borrowed money, you could have been cleaned out. There wasn’t anything wrong with Berkshire when those three times occurred. But if you’re going to look at the price of the stock and think that you have to act because it’s doing this or that, or somebody else tells you, “How can you stay with that,” when something else is going up or anything. You’ve got to be in the right psychological position. And frankly, some people are not really careful. Some people are more subject to fear than others. It’s like the virus. It strikes some people with a much greater ferocity than others. And fear is something I really never felt financially, but I don’t think Charlie’s felt it either. But some people can handle it psychologically. If they can’t handle it psychologically, then you really shouldn’t own stocks, because you’re going to buy and sell them at the wrong time. And you should not count on somebody else telling you this. You should do something you understand yourself. If you don’t understand it yourself, you’re going to be affected by the next person you talk to.)

巴菲特表示雖然我們不知道今天是否一個買股票的好日子,不知道某天買的股票會跑贏或跑輸市場,但他深信持有股票20或30年會為我地帶來回報。

(Warren Buffett:And so you should be in a position to hold, and I don’t know whether today is a great day to buy stocks. I know it will work out over 20 or 30 years. I don’t know whether it’ll work out over two years at all. I have no idea whether you’ll be ahead or behind on a stock you buy on Monday morning, or the market.)

6.投資未必穩賺 所以巴菲特推薦指數型基金

巴菲特提到巴郡多次轉型:從最初紡織業到零售業等等;就算你擁有多個你認為很好既生意,但這些生意未必最終每個都必然成功。這就是資本主義,世界永遠會不斷轉變,汰弱留強。所以巴菲特推薦大家買指數型基金,避免過份集中投資起個別股票上。

(Warren Buffett: We started with the textile business. We started a company called diversified retailing, which merged into Berkshire, became part of Berkshire and started with a department store in Baltimore. And department stores looked good in 1966 but the world has gone against them. And we had a trading stamp business at one time, and we stayed longer than anybody else but the world left trading stamps behind. And that’s going to happen with some businesses. That’s capitalism. And it will happen to some Berkshire businesses over the next 10 years and the next 50 years. We think we’ll find more of them that will grow. And net, that Berkshire will grow. But we do not think if you own a great many businesses that every one is destined for success. That’s why I suggest to people they buy an index fund.)

巴菲特在另一條問答提到他過世後,會將留給另一半90%的基金投資在S&P500指數型基金,這個選擇會比高收費既主動型基金好。

(Warren Buffett: Well, I can tell you I haven’t changed my will and it directs that my widow would have 90% of the funds in index funds and I think it’s better advice than people are generally getting from people that are getting paid a lot to give other advice.)( if the index funds reflect the market and one side has high fees that think they can pick out stocks and the other side has low fees, I know which side is going to win over time.)

主動型基金收費高,因為他們花大量金錢起銷售上,而非管理投資上。

(Warren Buffett: they are going to charge you a lot of money and they’re going to actually maybe close up their fund if they do it because they can’t do it with really huge amounts of money compared to how the record has been established in the past. Just have to recognize you’re dealing with an industry where it pays to be a great salesperson and it pays even better if you’re a great salesperson and you can actually produce something. But the money is in selling. There’s a lot more money in selling than in managing, actually, if you look to the essence of investment management.)

九十後股票投資 三火木

簡介:以巴菲特股東信,巴菲特親自推薦書,霍華德·馬克斯等價值投資大師為投資主軸的價值投資KOL,投資佈局港股美股與月供股票。2018年曾接受TVB訪問,講解作為90後對月供股票的看法。三火木希望將價值投資帶給更多香港人認識。

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